Pyongyang’s truce with Washington could end with terrible results. To avoid that, international efforts – notably from the US – are needed
North Korea often appears to have styled itself upon a James Bond adversary. We have seen the dramatic announcement of a deadline (New Year), followed by the arch threat that “it is up to the US what Christmas gift it will choose to get”. (Experts predict a missile test.) Its fondness for baroque menace is matched by its flair for provocation – Sunday saw the announcement of a “very important” test at its Sohae site, which the US said it had agreed to destroy. A flurry of pictures of Kim Jong-un mounted on a white horse, at the sacred site of Mount Paektu, surely herald, according to state media, “a great operation to strike the world with wonder again”. The theatricality is intentional: Pyongyang wants international attention. It should also be taken seriously. The North walked out of talks in October, frustrated that there is no sign of sanctions relaxation. The White House has reminded people that the US could use force and described Mr Kim as “Rocket Man” again – and warned he had “everything to lose”.
It would be easy to mistake this for another instalment in a predictable series. But it is only half true to say that we have been here before. Donald Trump’s threats of “fire and fury” followed by a charm offensive (“we fell in love”) have not merely failed to resolve the underlying problem; they have made a bad situation worse. He claimed progress by pretending there was no difference between something Pyongyang would not object to (multilateral denuclearisation of the peninsula) and something it would never agree to (complete unilateral denuclearisation). This was not a solution; only an illusion of progress.