Ray Fair’s latest analysis suggests Democrats will get 46.7% of the national vote – and he usually comes within 3% of the final tally

Since 1978 Ray Fair, ​​professor of Economics at Yale University, has been using economic data to predict US election outcomes. His bare-boned, strictly by the numbers approach has a fairly impressive record, usually coming within 3% of the final tally.

Sadly for Democrats – if Fair’s on track again this time – the Biden administration will struggle to keep control of Congress in November’s crucial midterm elections.

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